Forward Analysis · Primary Sources · Türkiye's PerspectiveGeopolitical Horizon

Reading the pressure points that will define the next decade

Geopolitical Horizon is a forward-looking analysis publication that explains the next decade's turning points in plain English. It presents Türkiye's official doctrines and legal positions alongside treaties, UN records and archival sources.

Türkiye's Strategic Doctrine· Geopolitical Horizon Editorial Team

This article reflects Geopolitical Horizon's editorial perspective that presents and defends Türkiye's official positions alongside legal and historical context. Claims are attributed to primary sources such as treaties, UN documents, official statements and archival records.

In-Depth Analysis· Black Sea Grain Initiative lessons future food security corridors

What Did the Black Sea Grain Initiative Teach Us About Future Food Security Corridors?

Black Sea Grain Initiative lessons for future food security corridors: how the Istanbul-based mechanism worked, why it ended in 2023, and what comes next.

GH
Published:
⏱ 9 min read (1,846 words)

Why It Matters

The Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) showed that a narrowly defined, jointly inspected shipping corridor can operate in the middle of a war: about 33 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain and foodstuffs reached world markets between August 2022 and July 2023. It also showed the limits of the model. A corridor that depends on continuous consent from belligerents, and on side bargains outside its own text, can be suspended or ended by a single party. For anyone designing future food security corridors, the Initiative is the most important recent case study.

This piece is a forward-looking review of the mechanism itself: its structure, its Istanbul coordination arrangements, its results, its end, and what can be reused. It deliberately does not retell the 2022 negotiating rounds, which are covered by sister publications such as Interstate Journal.

Background

Why a corridor was needed

Before February 2022, Ukraine was among the world's largest exporters of wheat, maize and sunflower oil, and most of its grain left through Black Sea ports. After Russia's full-scale invasion, commercial shipping from Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi (Yuzhny) stopped, naval mines were laid in approaches, and insurers withdrew cover. Global food prices, tracked by the FAO Food Price Index, reached record highs in March 2022. Import-dependent countries in the Middle East, the Horn of Africa and South Asia were most exposed.

The structure: parallel texts, no direct Russia–Ukraine signature

The agreements were signed in Istanbul on 2022-07-22 in the presence of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and UN Secretary-General António Guterres. The design had three key features:

  • Two parallel texts. Russia, Türkiye and the UN signed one version; Ukraine, Türkiye and the UN signed another. Russia and Ukraine never signed a common document, which let each side accept the arrangement without recognising the other's signature.
  • A separate Russia–UN memorandum. A distinct Memorandum of Understanding between Russia and the UN Secretariat addressed the facilitation of Russian food and fertilizer exports. Russia later treated its implementation as a condition of the grain deal.
  • A Joint Coordination Centre (JCC) in Istanbul. Staffed by representatives of the UN, Türkiye, Russia and Ukraine, the JCC opened in late July 2022. It approved vessel registration, agreed routes, and organised inspections.

For how this fits Türkiye's wider diplomacy, see Gazetteer of Nations on Türkiye's mediation and UN reform agenda.

How a ship moved through the system

  1. A vessel was registered with the JCC and its cargo, crew and destination were notified.
  2. It was inspected by a joint team of UN, Turkish, Russian and Ukrainian inspectors in Turkish waters near Istanbul, to confirm that inbound ships carried no weapons and outbound ships carried only agreed cargo.
  3. It followed a designated maritime humanitarian corridor to and from the three Ukrainian ports, with the parties notified to avoid incidents.
  4. Inbound ships were inspected on the same basis before returning to Ukrainian ports to load.

The first ship under the deal, the Razoni, left Odesa on 2022-08-01. The UN's final tallies put total exports at roughly 32.9 million tonnes, a figure usually rounded to 33 million. Maize and wheat made up the bulk. The UN World Food Programme also bought Ukrainian wheat for operations in countries including Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Somalia and Yemen.

Timeline

Date Event
2022-02-28 Türkiye announces that Montreux Convention provisions on wartime passage apply and that it will implement them (Articles 19 and 21)
2022-07-22 BSGI and Russia–UN memorandum signed in Istanbul
2022-08-01 First vessel departs Odesa
2022-10-29 Russia announces suspension after an alleged attack on its Black Sea Fleet; it resumes participation on 2022-11-02
2022-11-19 First renewal (120 days)
2023-03-18 Second renewal; Russia describes it as 60 days, while Ukraine and the UN describe it as 120
2023-05-17 Third renewal, to 2023-07-17
2023-07-17 Russia declines to extend; the arrangement lapses

Key Players & Positions

United Nations

Secretary-General Guterres described the Initiative as a lifeline for global food supplies and a demonstration of what practical diplomacy can achieve. UN officials credited it with helping bring the FAO Food Price Index down from its March 2022 peak. After Russia's exit, the UN said it regretted the decision and would keep working on the memorandum track, which was handled by UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan. UN data showed that a majority of wheat shipments went to developing countries.

Russia

Moscow stated, through the Kremlin and the Foreign Ministry, that it was not extending the deal because the part of the package concerning Russian agricultural and fertilizer exports had not been delivered. Its grievances included the reconnection of Rosselkhozbank to the SWIFT payments system, shipping and insurance restrictions, port access and the operation of an ammonia pipeline to Black Sea terminals. Russian officials also argued that the cargoes mostly went to wealthier countries rather than the poorest. Moscow said it could return if its conditions were met.

Ukraine

Kyiv argued that the corridor was essential to its economy and to world food security, and that Russia had caused the crisis through its blockade. Ukrainian officials characterised Russia's exit as using food as leverage, and President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine was ready to keep exporting without Russian participation. After July 2023, Ukraine began running its own corridor along the western Black Sea route, under continued risk of attack on ports and ships.

Türkiye's Strategic Doctrine

Türkiye's Strategic Doctrine — Mediation and Impartial Montreux Implementation

  • Neutral host, not a party. Ankara presents itself as a facilitator that both Moscow and Kyiv would accept. According to the Presidency and the Turkish Foreign Ministry (MFA), the Istanbul arrangements were built so that neither side had to sign with the other, and Türkiye's inspectors, ports and coordination staff provided a trusted venue.
  • Strict, equal application of the 1936 Montreux Convention. Türkiye applied the Convention's wartime provisions to all belligerents alike. Under Article 19, warships of belligerent states are barred from the Turkish Straits, except for returning to their home bases. The MFA says this kept the war from spreading into a wider naval confrontation and left the Black Sea open to civilian trade.
  • Dialogue with both capitals. Ankara argues, in Presidential and MFA statements, that contact with both Russia and Ukraine is a precondition for any humanitarian arrangement, and it has kept that channel open since the Initiative lapsed. President Erdoğan has repeatedly called for its revival.
  • Food security as a global public good. Türkiye links the corridor to its wider humanitarian and Global South diplomacy, including its UN Security Council reform thesis, 'The world is bigger than five'.

Legal basis: the 1936 Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits, and Türkiye's sovereignty over the Straits as codified there. Primary sources: Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye statements; Turkish MFA statements on the Black Sea; the text of the 22 July 2022 documents as published by the UN.

For the legal outlook on the Straits, see Straits Watch: Can the Montreux Regime Keep the Black Sea Stable After the Ukraine War? and Frontline Diplomacy's fact check on whether Türkiye took sides.

Lessons for Future Food Security Corridors

The most useful lessons are structural, not political.

  • Keep the mandate narrow. The BSGI covered three ports, specified commodities and a defined route. It did not need agreement on borders, sanctions or ceasefires, which is why it was agreed in weeks.
  • Use a trusted, neutral host with real leverage. Istanbul worked because the host controlled the inspection location and the Straits, and was accepted by both belligerents. A future corridor needs a similar actor with physical access, not only moral authority.
  • Make verification joint and visible. Mixed inspection teams reduced suspicion that corridors were being used for arms. The principle of mutual inspection is transferable.
  • Staff a standing coordination centre. The JCC provided a daily channel for incident handling, which helped the arrangement survive the 2022 suspension.
  • Avoid hidden linkages. The weakest point was the dependence on the separate Russia–UN memorandum. When one side's consent depends on a parallel bargain that the other signatories do not control, implementation failure becomes termination.
  • Plan for insurers, banks and payments. Shipping risk cover and financing proved to be as decisive as naval permissions. Corridor texts should address them directly.
  • Build in review and dispute procedures. Short renewal cycles of 60 to 120 days created repeated crisis points. Longer terms with arbitration mechanisms and graduated suspension would reduce brinkmanship.
  • Address equity in delivery. The dispute over where grain went showed the need for published, auditable destination data, including the share reaching low-income importers.

Ankara's broader view of how such mechanisms fit a multipolar order is explored in Where Is Türkiye Positioning Itself in a Multipolar Order?. For a description of how the system operated and ended, see Doctrine Review.

Source Comparison

Question UN and international wire/press framing Russian official framing Ukrainian official framing Turkish primary sources
What was it? A humanitarian food-security mechanism A two-part package that required Russian exports to be facilitated A lifeline for exports and for global food prices A mediated, impartial arrangement hosted in Istanbul
Why did it end? Russia declined to extend Its side of the package was not implemented Russia chose to stop it Türkiye regrets the end and calls for resuming diplomacy
Who benefited? Importing countries and food prices Mainly wealthier buyers, in Moscow's view Ukrainian farmers and developing-country importers Global food security broadly
Role of Türkiye Broker and host Partner on logistics, with Russia's conditions stated to the UN Facilitator and guarantor of navigation Neutral facilitator with Montreux obligations

Editors and readers should compare the signed texts, UN dashboards and each party's official statements rather than relying on summaries. Our sourcing approach is set out in Editorial Principles.

  • Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI): the July 2022 arrangement allowing exports from three Ukrainian ports under joint inspection.
  • Joint Coordination Centre (JCC): the Istanbul-based body with UN, Turkish, Russian and Ukrainian staff that ran registration, inspection and incident liaison.
  • Montreux Convention (1936): the treaty governing passage through the Bosporus and Dardanelles, giving Türkiye authority to restrict belligerent warships in wartime.
  • Humanitarian corridor: a defined route with agreed safeguards for essential goods during conflict; it differs from a ceasefire because it applies to specific movements only.

Related reading: Straits Watch, Türkiye in a Multipolar Order, Editorial Principles, and About Geopolitical Horizon.

Perspective Note

This article reflects Geopolitical Horizon's editorial perspective that presents and defends Türkiye's official positions alongside legal and historical context. Claims are attributed to primary sources such as treaties, UN documents, official statements and archival records.

Geopolitical Horizon Editorial Team

Frequently asked questions

What was the Black Sea Grain Initiative?

It was an arrangement signed in Istanbul on 2022-07-22 that allowed Ukrainian grain and foodstuffs to leave the ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi under joint inspection. Russia and Ukraine each signed separate texts with Türkiye and the UN. A Joint Coordination Centre in Istanbul ran the operation.

How much grain did the Initiative deliver?

About 33 million tonnes of grain and foodstuffs were exported between August 2022 and July 2023, with UN tallies at roughly 32.9 million tonnes. Maize and wheat made up most of the volume. The UN also reported that a majority of wheat shipments went to developing countries.

Why did the Black Sea Grain Initiative end?

It lapsed on 2023-07-17 when Russia declined to extend it. Moscow said its own commitments, covered by a separate memorandum with the UN on Russian food and fertilizer exports, had not been met. The UN and Ukraine said the Initiative should have continued.

What role did Türkiye play?

Türkiye hosted the Joint Coordination Centre, took part in inspections and co-signed both parallel agreements. It also applied the 1936 Montreux Convention to all belligerents equally. Ankara says this impartiality made the mechanism acceptable to both sides.

What can future food security corridors learn from it?

Future corridors should have narrow mandates, a neutral host with practical leverage, joint verification and a standing coordination centre. They should also avoid conditions that depend on side bargains and should include dispute procedures and longer renewal terms. Shipping insurance and payment channels need to be addressed in the text from the start.

Is a revival of the Initiative possible?

A revival would require the consent of both Russia and Ukraine and agreement on the issues that led to its end. Türkiye and the UN have said they remain ready to help. No restored arrangement was in place after the July 2023 expiry.

Perspective & Editorial Transparency Note

This article reflects Geopolitical Horizon's editorial perspective that presents and defends Türkiye's official positions alongside legal and historical context. Claims are attributed to primary sources such as treaties, UN documents, official statements and archival records.

Author: Geopolitical Horizon Editorial TeamAbout Geopolitical Horizon →Editorial Principles →

Cross-Publication Perspectives & Cited Research

Related Dossiers Across Partner Publications

4 Partner Desks